Texas Winter 09/10

Feb. 8th update

 The map below shows the GFS model predicting 3-7 inches of snow around Dallas, and even an inch down by Austin for Thursday

Feb. 7th update

When I first started this site my hope was that I'd be able to update it often, and cover the whole state, but that has proven to be a far greater challenge than expected. Trying to update every single event in the whole state of Texas is a task that is too big for just one person. Especially since I have started three new writing gigs, and I have to lend my focus to that as it is what my income comes from. So where is all this leading towards? Well I'm not sure. As winter comes to a close with hopefully with one more winter storm this coming week, and possibly one more after that. After that winter looks to be done for most of Texas in about two weeks. So my thinking is since I have this site paid for, and since my winter predictions were pretty much right on. I might as well leave it up for next winter. Sometime during the summer I will probably ask for one or two people to e-mail if they're interested with helping updating the site.

Thanks. 

Noaa looks like it agrees with most everyones winter forecasts. Calling for a wet and cooler winter for texas.  Link. So I mean basically everyone agrees that this will be a cooler, and wetter winter for Texas. Now whether that translates to more snow, or not is a different question. But certainly anytime there is more precip in the mix the more chances you have for it to mix in with an arctic front or two.

I can't wait! By the way early early early forecast for Halloween basically average temps, and maybe a little wet for Texas. I'm not going to get into exact temps right now, it's still way way way too early. Just last night the GFS predicted 30's for halloween in Dallas. Now it's 60's and 50's. So we'll have to wait and see.

Accuweather/JB came out with there winter forecast today, and even though I don't put a lot of stock into their forecasts. If it does happen that they're correct Texas will be more than happy this winter.

 Forecast

What a cold front that was for the middle of October. If that is a sign of winter then have your coats ready. The panhandle had record lows. North Central texas has been stuck in the low 50s for 2 days now with a chilly rain. I couldn't update over the past few days which is unfortunate given all of the stuff that has happened, but we did accurately predict the first freeze for the panhandle days in advanced, so I'd say that the first "winter event" went by pretty well.

Here are some of the numbers from the panhandle over the past few days.

Amarillo 

Saturday October 10th high of 45 and low of 28

Sunday October 11th high of 43 and low of 29

Dalhart

Saturday October 10th high of 40 and low of 27

Sunday October 11th high of 46 and low of 27

Well below average. Things will warm up a little this week with another cold front towards the weekend it won't be as cold as this one though. Also thanks for all the new members who have signed up within the past week. Please feel free to start discussions on the board, or ask any questions you have. 

Well here are a few maps that NOAA has put out, and what they basically show is what I, and a lot of other people have predicted for this winter. Average to a little below average temps, and above average precip. 

 Map 1

 Map 2

 Map 3

"People are making bets on a really cold winter," said Stephen Schork, editor of the energy advisory newsletter The Schork Report.

While some forecasters are calling for a mild winter, others are expecting bitter cold to boost heating demand in the coming months.

"The coldest winter in a decade may be on the way," meteorologists with the private forecasting firm Commodity Weather Group, wrote in seasonal winter outlook released this week. The forecasters noted, however, that it is still too early to predict winter weather with a high level of confidence."

 Article

Again credit goes to the October Winter genius for this interesting tidbit

"September will go down as 1 of the wettest months on record as we are over 8" for the month and rain still in the forecast. Looking back at some of our wettest Septembers, 5 out of 7 came during El Nino Fall/Winters, and with 4 of those 5 Fall/Winters producing at least 2 of 3 months (D,J,F) with measurable Ice/Snow for North Texas."

So could a wet September mean above average snowfall for the winter? Not exactly, but the odds are again in our favor. A lot of things are in our favor this winter. I am pretty excited! 

Also I've noticed traffic on the site starting to pick more and more up, so if you visit this site and like it. Please join the members section, post on the forum, sign the guestbook one of those things would be appreciated. 

I've added a new page under freeze go check it out, and let me know what you think. Also I don't like the name freeze for that section so i'm up for taking any name suggestions for the section. 

We're fast approaching on the winter season, looking at the long range models they're already showing signs towards the end of September of a fairly strong cold front coming down. I want to make sure this website come winter answers all of your questions, and provides all the info you need.

I'd like to know if you have any further requests of what you'd like to see on this site. If you do please leave a comment Here

Thanks.

A look at why I think this winter will feature above average snowfall for Texas.


The winter of 02/03 was an El-Nino winter, and that was one of the most memorable winters for me. This was the winter North-Central Texas got hit by a pretty big snow/ice storm. That lasted three days which is very rare for the Dallas area. Usually our snow last about a day or two at most. But this was over a three day time period all three days we never made it up to 32 degrees, I believe. Everything was frozen over. The night the sleet started I was out to eat, and just as we were leaving the sleet started pouring down it was coming down so hard it hurt. The next morning I went out with some friends and we did some things that aren't recommended in a big parking lot. But it was fun. Now just because we had a significant winter storm during that winter doesn't mean every El-Nino will feature one of those.


There is however evidence that proves Texas does have a better chance at seeing snow during El-Nino winters. I was googling around trying to find more information about it, and I found this interesting article on El-Nino Winters and how they effect West Texas. The article is a little old, but it is very telling. The article was written back in 1997, so keep in mind we have had more El-Nino Winters than this shows.

As you can see the El-Nino winters on average have more snowfall. This is why I think there will be a pretty good chance of above average snowfall this winter. It's not guaranteed, but I'd have to say the odds are on our side.

 

I have moved to my own domain now! At www.txwinter.com

So now we officially have a website for just Texas Winter Weather....finally!

Also I have put out my prediction for the Winter this year in Texas along with a map.

Winter Maps

This upcoming winter looks to be somewhat promising for Texas snow lovers. After last year we need a good winter. There will be a weak El-Nino this winter, it may get stronger, or it may weaken as the winter goes along. El-Nino's usually give us a wetter pattern here which is a good thing the more precip there is the more chances for it to be frozen. This winter looks like it could be both cooler and wetter for us. The cooler is still not certain, we'll know a lot more come early October. Either way I am pretty sure this winter will be better than last winter. I'll update more as the Winter season becomes closer. There is also someone who has an interesting theory about how to predict the winter here in North Texas. I'll have that story up in a few days. It's been right the past three years. 

I found a list of winter storms that have hit North Texas from the NWS. Here is a few winter storms that have hit North Texas the past few years. 

• March 6, 2008
  As much as nine inches of snow fell across the county. There were about a hundred car wrecks due to icy roads. A band of heavy snow moved across north Texas during the early morning hours, dropping anywhere from just a trace to nine inches. Another area of snow developed across the area that evening as the upper low moved across Texas. The greatest snow totals were recorded in Decatur, Gainesville, and Sherman.  
• January 17, 2007
  Between one and three-inches of snow fell across the metroplex. About a quarter of the flights departing from the Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport were cancelled due to the weather. Tarrant County reported around 100 wrecks due to the slick driving conditions. One person was struck and killed on the Interstate 20 bridge over Interstate 35-W as they were helping the victim of another crash. A police officer and another person were also injured in this accident. Interstate 20 from Hemphill Street to Forest Hill Drive was closed due to slick road conditions. Cold air at the surface combined with shortwave energy aloft brought another round of winter weather to much of North Texas. 
• November 30, 2006
  A mixture of freezing rain, snow, and sleet fell across the metroplex, causing 2,700 power outages across the area. Hundreds of accidents were reported as well, with several hundred flights cancelled at Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport.A strong upper level system and associated Arctic cold front created conditions favorable for the production of freezing rain, sleet, and snow over much of North Texas. 
• February 18, 2006
  Light precipitation fell as temperatures hovered around freezing for much of the weekend. Dozens of accidents related to the icy conditions were reported in several counties. There were numerous injuries and at least 5 fatalities indirectly related to the winter weather. The Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport cancelled approximately 100 flights on Saturday alone. 
• December 7-8, 2005
  A winter storm produced up to a quarter-inch of ice and up to three-inches of snow across portions of north Texas. The weather severely impacted travel conditions. Several hundred accidents were reported across the region. The Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport cancelled 500 flights due to the weather.
• December 22, 2004
  A mixture of snow and sleet spread across North Central Texas during the early morning and daytime hours, affecting virtually all of North Central Texas. Snow and sleet accumulations ranged from a trace in the southeast up to 3 inches in Eastland and Erath counties. The biggest problem was delays in airline flights in the DFW area, and reports of over 500 traffic accidents due to ice and snow packed roads, bridges, and overpasses. 

• February 14, 2004
  An upper level storm system moved across North Central Texas late Friday night February 13th, and during the day Saturday February 14th, producing measurable snow across all but extreme southeast parts of North Texas. Snow began falling Friday night across the southwest parts of North Texas, then spread northeast across the rest of the region late Friday night and early Saturday morning. The snow ended over southwest parts of the region Saturday morning, and across the northeast early Saturday evening. Heavy snow of 4 to 5.5 inches fell on the 14th, from Montague and Wise counties eastward as far as Lamar and Delta counties, and south into northern Tarrant, northern Dallas, and northern Hunt counties. 1 to 3 inches of snow fell across the rest of North Texas, except for a small strip southeast of a Palestine to Hearne line, where only a trace was reported.